Yrrrr, ou's are gonna be losing their marbles soon if this flat spell lasts any longer. This has been a pretty horrendous run of zero swell and onshores. I decided to go crunch some numbers to see just how bad "bad" actually is.
And the outcome? Bad. Very bad!!
I checked out the weather stats for October and November, and they make rather kak reading. Basically each month had only 6 surfable days (we're talking the bay here - so not wildside or seals etc). By "surfable" I mean when you have the combination of a SW wind and a swell of over 2m, with a swell period of over 11 seconds. Now that is actually hardly decent surf in anyone's books, but that's how low I had to set the benchmark in order to come up with some workable stats!!
October saw only 2 days that had swell periods of over 14 seconds - which is generally the sort of period you're looking for in order to get surf with some punch. Of the 8 days that had both the offshore and a bit of swell coinciding - 4 had such hectic wind that it was hardly worth the effort.
November didn't get any better - 6 surfable days of which 4 the wind was pomping. Only 2 days with a decent swell period, and one of those was onshore! Looking back at the Photo Galleries for 2011 and 2010 on the site - there were 14 up for Oct/Nov last year, and 16 for Oct/Nov 2010. This year? Seven. Eish.
So yah, a sad story all in all. 60 days and only 12 surfable by "ideal" standards. If you're into onshore bowls then you were probably managed to rack up more than 12 days surfing, altho given the lack of swell it would've had to be small onshore bowls!
Summer surf in the bay can really test your patience....so if you're wanting to get wet regularly you're going to have to fill up the petrol tank and head outside the bay. Plenty of nooks and crannies out there if you're prepared to go looking. Just watch out for the pearlies and the great whites!
Summer see's the juveniles pull in to the exposed beaches to chow, so keep your eye's peeled! You aren't on the menu, but it doesn't hurt to keep a lookout.
Oh, and just to REALLY make your day - looks like this run of east wind is set to continue. Just a quick swing to south on Saturday and Monday, but otherwise east, east, east. Ask Santa for a West!!!!